tbentley.com

Headline in WaPo Wonkblog:

Top Bush administration economists: Don’t default. Do use the debt limit negotiations to rein in deficits.

Why should there be any ‘negotiation’ at all?  What’s to negotiate?  Raising the debt limit is not about spending more money; it’s about paying for what’s been spent, paying the bills.  Negotiation is when there’s a question of how much should be spent; but the debt is money we owe.  We can negotiate about how much should be spent in the future: that’s called the ‘budget negotiations,’ and that’s sure to be a doozy of a session.  We can also argue about how much to restore of the funds in the ‘sequester’.  But the debt ceiling?  Not open to discussion.

Well, we can use the Bayes Probability Theorem to figure out how likely is is that fracking will pollute our water supply.

Suppose the probability of fracking polluting the water supply in any one spot–say, within 500 yards of the fracking site–is originally estimated, before any evidence of pollution has been found, to be only 0.5%.

Now an event happens, such as the real event: water coming from a tap in a house, which draws its water from a well, starts to ignite when an open flame is brought near it.

What are the chances that the fracking caused the pollution?  We can estimate that there is about a 40% chance that fracking is the cause.  We can also posit that, without the fracking, natural causes might cause the water to become polluted; but it’s very rarely that a water supply spontaneously becomes flammable, so let’s put that possibility at 0.05%.

Plugging these values in to the Bayesean Theorem; x=.5, y=50%, z=0.05%

Bayesean Theorem:  P = xy / xy + z(1-x)

Solving for P :  There is a 83% chance that fracking will pollute the water supply.

That is not a trivial possibility.

You can play with these figures, using my Bayesean Calculator, at www.tbentley.com/bayes.php .  In any case, you will not find the possibility of pollution from fracking to be anything but frightening.

Hey, nothing wrong with that, right?

Click HERE to use my Bayesean Probability Calulator

When politicians talk about cutting old-age entitlements, they are really talking about denying health care and social security benefits to poor old women.

Dr. Robert N. Butler, quoted in Never Say Die by Susan Jacoby

From Krugman’s blog

 Rationality has a well-known liberal bias.

 

Smirgy Lip Gloss

What’s with all this lip gloss?  Way too much shiny.  If you’ve got thick lips, it looks like your nose is running; if thin, like you’ve been sucking dick without swallowing.  Clean it up, girl!

Annoying Cashiers’ Trait

It is extremely annoying, when the cashier at your store gives you your change by handing you: 1) your receipt, on top of which is placed 2) the bill currency of your change, on top of which is precariously balanced 3) the coin portion of your change.  I now have to somehow get the change into another hand, which I can transfer to my pocket, then separate the receipt from the bills and place it in the bag (you always get a plastic bag!), then in a two-hand ballet get the bills into my wallet.

What I want:  coins in palm, followed by bills; receipt goes in the bag.

I’m feeling today quite a bit like I did back in 2006, the year before the economic meltdown– like doom is just around the corner–or at least lurking in the neighborhood.  But it’s not financial missteps that are the cause of my sense of impending doom; it’s fracking.

I can’t help but feel that the country is kind of like a heroin addict; we’re addicted to extravagant use of energy, especially liquid extractive fuels.  We are set on a path of sticking holes into the ground, much as a heroin addict sticks the needle into his body, and injecting poisons; even though we will get a significant rush at first, in the longer run, the body will be ruined.

In 2006, I knew that we would not be able to retire and live in Florida in the new condo we had recently bought, and had to sell that.  It was clear to me that the housing market was about to crash.We did sell it, at a good profit, and used the proceeds to buy our townhouse in South Carolina.  We also were able to sell our house in Vermont, just in time; the realtor kept telling us to hold out for a higher price–but no one was offering a higher price, and I just felt that we better sell while we could; we got what I feel was the best price possible aat the time, and used the proceeds from the sale to invest in our retirement account ( a mixture of bonds and securities).

Sorry, but that’s what the country should be doing now: investing in renewable energy sources–not just for today, but for the inevitable day in the future when we have poisoned our water tables, and the rivers are unpotable.

Oh, great: The conglomerate, Freedom Group, that includes Bushmaster (who made the AR-15 used to slaughter 20 children and 6 adults in Newtown, CN) and at least six other armaments manufacturers, is go be sold by private equity investment group Cerberus:

Cerberus said that it was putting the Freedom Group up for sale….

Cerberus signaled that it wanted to remove itself from the uproar over the nation’s gun laws in seeking to sell Freedom, which makes the Bushmaster rifle used in the massacre.

from Mother Jones

So Cerberus won’t own Freedom Group, but will sell it.  Won’t stop making the awful things, just doesn’t want to be so closely connected to them.  I think this is technically called “washing one’s hands”.

And to whom will Freedom Group be sold?

Several foreign gun manufacturers, including Forjas Taurus of Brazil and Heckler & Koch of Germany, could be possible acquirers, according to a banker familiar with the weapons industry.

Terrific; some Brazilians or Germans will now resume flooding  America with assault weapons.  I feel so much better now.